ADULT SMOKERS
DESERVE ACTION
Public health estimates suggest one billion people worldwide still smoke and almost 8 million deaths per year are attributed to smoking-related diseases.1
Quitting all forms of tobacco and nicotine consumption is the best choice—but the reality is that million of adults will continue to smoke. In fact, based on current trends, the number of smokers worldwide is not expected to significantly change in the near future.
However, a growing body of real-world evidence reveals the positive impact smoke-free products could have in helping adult smokers abandon cigarettes—if only governments would recognize their potential.
Rethink
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How could we dramatically reduce the number of smoking attributed deaths globally?
By replacing cigarettes with smoke-free alternatives.
Governments need to recognize the public health merits of tobacco harm reduction.
Why?
Because in any given year, 9 out of 10 smokers don't quit.
If they switched completely to smoke-free alternatives, then over their lifetime smoking-related deaths could be reduced by 10 times compared to historical tobacco control measures alone.
Footnote reads: Hypothetical estimate is based of WHO and third-party data, estimates and methods, which assumes smoke-free products are around 80% less risky than cigarettes. This estimate has limitations.
Rethink disruption.
Philip Morris International.
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A new regulatory approach is urgently needed—one that complements traditional tobacco control measures with scientifically substantiated smoke-free alternatives to cigarettes, as demonstrated in countries such as Japan, the U.K., and Sweden.
These innovative products—including heated tobacco, e-cigarettes, nicotine pouches, and snus—don’t burn tobacco. As a result, they can produce significantly lower average levels of harmful chemicals compared to cigarettes, making them a much better choice than continued smoking.
Despite the public health opportunity represented by these products, many countries still pursue a prohibitive approach that includes regulating them like cigarettes—or banning them outright. We ask them: Look at the positive impact achieved by countries that have embraced smoke-free products.
355,000 POTENTIALLY AVOIDABLE DEATHS PER YEAR
Third-party estimates for smoking-attributable deaths among men in the EU each year that could have been avoided if other EU countries had matched Sweden’s tobacco-related mortality rate.2
REAL WORLD PROOF: SWEDEN
Sweden’s public health data show it now has the lowest smoking rate in Europe. This is due in large part to snus—a tobacco pouch placed between the lips and gums—which Swedish men began switching to decades ago. 3
Now: Male death rates from lung and oral cancer are much lower in Sweden compared to other EU countries.4
The key difference: Snus is banned in the rest of the EU.
Sweden’s progressive tobacco policies have put the country on the brink of becoming smoke-free. It also has the lowest rate of lung and oral cancer deaths among men in the EU.
BETTER ALTERNATIVES = BETTER OUTCOMES
In countries that have adopted sensible policies enabling adult smokers to access smoke-free products and accurate information about them, smoking prevalence is falling at a faster rate.
REAL WORLD EVIDENCE: NEW ZEALAND + JAPAN
In 2019, five years after heated tobacco products were first introduced in Japan, a study conducted by researchers working for the American Cancer Society found an unprecedented decline in cigarette sales in the country.5
And New Zealand, which has adopted smoke-free products to help adults abandon cigarettes, has also seen smoking rates plunge.6
Now: Cigarette sales are decreasing at accelerating speeds in New Zealand and Japan, while Thailand has seen only a 16 percent decline in its smoking rate over a seven-year period.7
The key difference: Since 2014, Thailand has enforced a strict ban on smoke-free products.
Smoking rates in New Zealand have declined rapidly since 2020 after its government integrated harm reduction within its tobacco control policy.
Japan has seen a steep fall in its smoking rate following the introduction of heated tobacco products.
A POTENTIAL
10X REDUCTION
IN SMOKING-ATTRIBUTABLE DEATHS
Using World Health Organization (WHO) data, estimates, and methods, along with other third-party research, the positive potential public health impact of the world’s smokers switching completely from cigarettes to less harmful, smoke-free products can be seen.
This hypothetical model shows that if these products are assumed to be 80 percent less risky than cigarettes—and if adults who currently smoke were to switch to them completely—then over their lifetime there’s a potential for a 10-fold reduction in smoking-attributable deaths compared with historical tobacco control measures alone.8
Whilst there are limitations to this kind of hypothetical analysis, this estimate shows the opportunities for countries to deliver positive change.
Discover the potential reduction in smoking-attributable deaths by clicking on/hovering over the following selected countries: *
* These countries were chosen based on the availability of WHO and other third-party public data
In 10 years, we could be saying, ‘Remember when people smoked?’
The evidence clearly demonstrates the potential of tobacco harm reduction.
Governments around the world are already delivering positive disruption to help adult smokers that don’t quit move permanently away from cigarettes.
If every other government followed, choosing action over inaction, a smoke-free future could be achieved much faster for all.
Like us, some countries are playing their part.
In the interests of adult smokers, others now need to step up.
1. https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)01169-7/fulltext
2. Snuskommissionen_rapport3_eng_PRINT.pdf
3. Swedish National Public Health Survey
4. Causes of death - standardized death rate by NUTS 2 region of residence
5. National Health and Nutrition Survey (Japanese)
6. New Zealand Health Survey
7. Survey of Smoking and Drinking Behaviors of the Population, Health and Welfare Survey and Health Behavior of Population Survey (Thai)
8. PMI projections based on third-party data