Effective policymaking and law enforcement action: Keys to making cigarettes a thing of the past 

Illicit trade is not just putting smokers in Europe at risk—it directly impacts everyone’s lives. It presents a major threat both to public health and public security, as it endangers consumers by exposing them to inferior, noncompliant products, hurts legitimate businesses and deprives governments of much-needed tax revenues, and fuels criminal organizations, facilitating other serious crimes. 

Illicit cigarette consumption in Europe is not a victimless crime—it has real-life consequences for society at large. Interviews with law enforcement agencies shed light on this problem: Transnational organized crime is on the rise, expanding the set-up of illegal factories in Western Europe, targeting smokers who struggle to afford legitimate products in higher-taxed and higher-priced EU member states. 

Preventing illicit trade, therefore, should be a priority for policymakers in Europe.  

Counterfeit cigarettes: A constant threat 

According to the latest KPMG report, illicit cigarette consumption in Europe has grown steadily since 2019, reaching 52.2 billion cigarettes in 2023. Counterfeit cigarettes, mostly manufactured and distributed within EU borders, continue to be one of the main sources of illicit consumption in the EU.  

Law enforcement agencies across Europe have done an outstanding job in 2023: They have reported at least 113 clandestine factory raids and other massive cigarette seizures across 22 nations, notably in countries such as Belgium, France, and Poland.  

However, these efforts are not enough: More needs to be done in the fight to tackle illicit trade and reduce smoking prevalence. It’s time regulators moved past failed tobacco control policies, such as excessive taxation of legal products, to more effective solutions that do not drive consumers to illicit alternatives. 

If we don’t act now, then organized crime stands to emerge victorious. In some countries, like France, criminal networks profiting from the illicit tobacco trade are prevailing, with 33.2 percent of all cigarettes consumed originating from the black market. This trend must be reversed, and urgent action taken to ensure it does not expand further. 

Criminals and illicit trade, two sides of the same coin

Organized crime thrives while putting consumers at risk. Illicit trade is a far-reaching phenomenon that not only deprives governments of tax revenues for much-needed public services, but the easy availability of low-priced contraband and counterfeit products discourages smoking cessation efforts, undermines youth access prevention measures, and prevents adult smokers from considering better alternatives to cigarettes. This, in turn, undermines public health goals. 

Illicit trade also feeds violence and fuels ruthless criminal gangs across Europe, breeds corruption and human rights abuses, and undermines trust in institutions and the rule of law. Additionally, the proceeds from illicit trade often help facilitate other serious crimes such as drug trafficking, human trafficking, corruption, and money laundering. 

This issue is far from being new. In 2021, the EU Serious and Organized Crime Threat Assessment (EU SOCTA) report, produced by Europol, had identified the fight against illicit cigarettes, especially counterfeits, as a specific area of focus. This agency had already singled out the illicit tobacco trade in 2011 as one of the key criminal threats in the EU. 

Christos Harpantidis, Senior Vice President, External Affairs, Philip Morris International

Europeans agree, too. An April 2024 Povaddo survey, commissioned by Philip Morris International, found that 73 percent of respondents believed that the illicit trade in tobacco- and nicotine-containing products can have serious negative consequences on security, safety, and public health. 

What can be done to address this problem? A sensible approach to curb illicit trade is one that avoids excessive taxation schemes on consumer goods or prohibitive policies, provides tools and resources for law enforcement to vigorously pursue and penalize those dealing with illicit goods, and at the same time informs consumers about the wide-reaching impact of the black market. Awareness and education are powerful tools, if leveraged appropriately. Adult smokers need to learn about the dangers behind easily available illegal goods, same as they need access to, and information about, better alternatives to continued smoking. 

With such mechanisms in place, the EU can live up to its commitment of bringing down criminal organizations profiting from illicit trade. 

Avoid perpetuating failed policy recipes 

The illicit cigarette trade issue, as evidenced in the KPMG report, is too big to ignore. By failing to act, we are failing our society and our most vulnerable communities and populations. 

The illicit market in Europe continues to be a major threat for public health, public security, and States’ economies. It deprives governments of much-needed tax revenues: The European Union (EU) alone has lost an estimated EUR 11.6 billion due to illicit cigarette consumption in 2023, with France accounting for EUR 7.3 billion of the total. 

We need to move past policies that have failed to reduce smoking prevalence and even in some cases exacerbated illicit trade, and prioritize efforts that reduce illicit trade to advance sustainable development for the benefit of consumers, legitimate businesses, governments, and civil society.  

The data is clear: The countries that are currently seeing illicit incidence in decline are those benefiting from strict law enforcement action, as well as balanced and predictable fiscal calendars, while leaving behind prohibition or steep and abrupt taxation schemes.  

At the same time, a well-rounded policy approach that aims to reduce smoking prevalence as a whole should also focus on allowing legal-age consumers access to better products, at an affordable price, and with accurate and appropriate information.  

In short: We need more forward-thinking governments and policymaking to enact positive change for the benefit of millions in Europe and beyond.